Zambia's Copperbelt is experiencing a surge of capital investment not seen in over a decade. First Quantum Minerals, Barrick Gold, and a wave of smaller operators have committed billions to expand copper and cobalt production, positioning the southern African nation as a counterweight to DRC dominance in the battery metals supply chain.
A New Chapter for the Copperbelt
Zambia has attracted roughly $10 billion in mining investment over the past four years, with an additional $15 to $20 billion projected through 2031. The scale of capital flowing into the country's copper and cobalt sector represents a strategic bet by major mining companies on the long-term demand trajectory for battery metals and electrification infrastructure.
National copper production reached approximately 890,000 tonnes in 2025, an 8 percent increase year-over-year, and the government has set a target of one million tonnes for 2026. The more ambitious goal of tripling output to three million tonnes by 2031 would require sustained investment at the current pace or higher, but the momentum is real and the project pipeline is substantial.
First Quantum Doubles Down on Kansanshi
First Quantum Minerals, which accounts for roughly half of Zambia's total copper output, completed commissioning of its $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 expansion in August 2025. The project nearly doubles ore-milling capacity at Kansanshi, expands smelter throughput by approximately 25 percent, and opens a new pit that extends the mine life by more than 20 years.
The expansion lifts Kansanshi's target production to 250,000 tonnes of copper per year through 2044, up from 171,000 tonnes in 2024. Combined with output from the Sentinel mine, First Quantum's Zambian operations are guiding toward 375,000 to 435,000 tonnes in 2026, rising to 430,000 to 490,000 tonnes by 2028.
The company's commitment to Zambia has deepened considerably since the forced closure of its Cobre Panama mine in late 2023, which removed over 300,000 tonnes of annual copper capacity from its portfolio overnight. Zambia now accounts for more than 90 percent of First Quantum's global output, and the company paid $650 million to the Zambian government in 2024 through taxes and royalties, making it the country's largest taxpayer.
Barrick's Lumwana Super Pit
Barrick Gold broke ground on its $2 billion Lumwana Super Pit expansion in October 2024, with Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema presiding over the ceremony. The project targets 240,000 tonnes of copper per year with a mine life exceeding 30 years, making it one of the largest single copper investments in the Copperbelt's history.
First production from the expanded operation is expected in 2028. The Lumwana project is significant not only for its scale but for what it signals about Barrick's strategic direction. The company, traditionally associated with gold mining, has identified copper as a core growth metal and views Zambia's geological endowment and relatively stable regulatory environment as favorable for long-term capital deployment.
Emerging Players and Exploration
Beyond the majors, a growing roster of mid-tier companies and exploration-stage operators are establishing positions across the Copperbelt.
KoBold Metals, backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, has committed $2 billion to develop a new greenfield copper mine using AI-driven exploration techniques. The project is still in its early stages but represents a novel approach to mineral discovery in a well-explored but underexploited geological province.
Ivanhoe Mines signed a memorandum of understanding with the Zambian government in August 2024 for exploration and production of copper across multiple sites, joining Anglo American and Rio Tinto in returning to the country after previous periods of divestment. Sinomine's Kitumba project, with capacity of approximately 50,000 tonnes per year, is expected to come online in 2026.
On the cobalt side, several smaller projects are advancing. Lunda Resources (a joint venture between Terra Metals and Metalex) is building a 240-tonne-per-hour copper-cobalt concentrator backed by $100 million in investment, with commissioning targeted for late 2025. Kobaloni Energy has secured $100 million from Vision Blue and the Africa Finance Corporation for a dedicated cobalt project.
Cobalt: The Overlooked Byproduct
Zambia currently ranks as the 14th-largest cobalt producer globally, a modest position given the country's geological potential. Six operations actively produce cobalt as a byproduct of copper mining, and production is forecast to grow at roughly 7 percent annually through 2027.
The Chambishi cobalt refinery, operated by Chambishi Metals (90 percent owned by ERG), has nameplate capacity of 6,800 tonnes per year of cobalt metal and historically supplied approximately 7 percent of global cobalt metal production. However, the facility has faced intermittent shutdowns and care-and-maintenance periods since 2019, partly due to a Zambian government decision to impose a 5 percent import duty on copper-cobalt concentrates that disrupted the flow of feedstock from ERG's DRC operations.
As Zambia's copper production scales toward the three-million-tonne target, cobalt byproduct output should increase proportionally. This growth could provide a modest but meaningful counterbalance to the DRC's near-monopoly on artisanal and industrial cobalt supply, particularly for buyers seeking material with stronger traceability credentials.
Infrastructure and Policy Enablers
The investment wave is being supported by significant infrastructure development and policy reform. The Lobito Corridor railway, backed by billions in U.S. government funding, will connect the Copperbelt to the Angolan port of Lobito, providing a western export route that reduces dependence on the congested southern corridor through South Africa.
Zambia introduced local content regulations effective January 1, 2026, requiring that 20 percent of core goods and 100 percent of secondary goods and services be sourced from Zambian businesses. While the regulations add complexity for international operators, they reflect the government's determination to ensure that the mining boom generates broader economic benefits.
Power supply remains the most significant constraint. Zambia experienced severe electricity shortages in 2024 and 2025 due to drought-reduced hydroelectric output, and the government is actively expanding generation capacity through solar, gas, and imported power arrangements. Reliable electricity supply will be essential to supporting the planned scale-up in mining activity.
Strategic Implications
The concentration of investment in Zambia reflects a broader recalibration of mining capital toward jurisdictions perceived as stable, resource-rich, and strategically aligned with Western supply chain objectives. The DRC, which produces roughly 75 percent of global cobalt and a growing share of African copper, remains essential to the battery metals supply chain but carries higher political and reputational risk that has pushed some investors toward alternatives.
Zambia's combination of known geological potential, English common law mining code, and a government actively courting foreign investment has created a window of opportunity. Whether the country can sustain the regulatory consistency and infrastructure investment needed to realize the three-million-tonne vision will determine whether this moment represents a genuine structural shift or a cyclical surge that fades with commodity prices.
