Post-war order politics may have made sense in a post-war world. But now, 80 years later... the U.S. is faced with an approaching opportunity to secure the potash supply chain.
Precious Cargo
For the first time in 4 years a 30,000 metric ton supply of Belarusian potash will be imported into the United States. A cargo ship that left the Russian port of Bronka in the middle of September is scheduled to deliver the small supply of this valuable nutrient to New Orleans today. Mined in Belarus, this particular supply is a minimal representation of the necessary amount American farmers need for their crops – only 3 tenths of 1% of what totals the yearly requirement. American farmers rely on potash as an essential ingredient for fertilizer that domestic crop production depends on, however the U.S. purchases its potash almost entirely from sources abroad.
The Fertilizer You Cannot Substitute
The critical mineral known as potash, which is its trade name, is potassium salt mined for fertilizer, and is an essential nutrient for growing crops, because every crop needs potassium. In fact, every crop needs 3 macronutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, or N-P-K). Nitrogen is available in abundant supply, as it is pulled from the air using natural gas; and the U.S. is a top 3 international producer of phosphorus, thanks to active mining of phosphate minerals in Florida, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Potash is the only part of the recipe that is mostly imported (more than 9 out of ten tons), from Canada and Russia by 90%, creating a supply chain that the United States does not control. Commercially, the 2 main forms of potash are: Muriate of Potash (MOP) and Sulfate of Potash (SOP). MOP is potassium chloride, used for hardy plants such as corn, soybeans, and wheat. SOP is potassium sulphate, which is used as the premium fertilizer for crops such as fruits, vegetables, nuts and tobacco. Due to the fact that MOP and SOP carry different amounts of potassium, the industry measures their tonnage on a common basis, called K2O equivalent. So, the Belarusian shipment of 30,000 tons of MOP works out to equal roughly 18,000 tons of K2O. Shipping volumes are quoted as physical tons, while national and global statistics are in K2O (which includes the statistics in this article). It is important for Americans to understand the distinction because more than 60% of potash produced by the U.S. is SOP, and not the MOP relied upon by its staple row crops. Potash was included in the first Official U.S. Critical Minerals list, published in 2018, along with Lithium, Cobalt, and the rare earths. Oddly enough, the U.S. Geological Survey removed potash from the list in 2022, but restored it in November of 2025, in addition to also adding Copper, Silver and Silicon. The significance of this redesignation as a critical mineral is that potash now has the federal financing capabilities and permitting priority available to the rare earths and others. In addition, it illustrates a crucial economic point that U.S. farmers have been making for years: fertilizer security is and should be a national security priority.
A Supply Chain Built for a World That No Longer Exists
To fully understand the current global potash trade, one must recognize post-war order politics: prosperous countries with the right geological benefits sell to everyone else, borders are assumed to stay open, and the ton sold at the lowest price wins. The USGS estimates that the world produced about 49 million tons of potash in 2025, in K2O measurements. About 63% was accounted for in Canada, Russia and Belarus alone, also the 3 largest exporters. China produces about as much as Belarus, but consumes everything it produces, and more. Most of the rest of the world’s production is then completed by Germany, Laos, Israel and Jordan. 92% of the potash supplies the U.S. uses are bought from foreign operations. Between 2021 and 2024, 79% was imported from Canada, 12% from Russia, and 3% from Israel. In fact, our Canadian neighbors supply nearly 3 quarters of the potassium used for U.S. crops. The only domestic output of potash, mined in New Mexico and Utah, was about half a million tons in 2025, more than the approaching shipment from Belarus, but still nothing close to the necessary national demand. Post-war order politics may have made sense in a post-war world. But now, 80 years later, with changing geopolitical forces and tensions that include the recent U.S. and Canadian trade relationship, the U.S. is faced with an approaching opportunity to secure the potash supply chain.
What a Secure Chain Would Actually Look Like
Post-war period mining may have allowed anyone safe and easy access to any new mine; however, new mines being built today are largely being used privately by other countries. For example, China’s producers in Laos, which turned out about 2.4 million tons, supply Chinese farms and other Asian markets, and the other largest reserves on Earth are controlled by Russia. Even Canada’s supply line, as friendly as it has been historically, is now faced with ongoing rounds of tariffs that must be agreed upon and in accordance with USMCA exemptions. Those who now own the tonnage can also control its distribution, no matter how much there is. These recent developments in supply chain management have brought attention to home grown solutions. In the U.S., 220 million tons of potash reserves, and an advanced new project, Michigan Potash and Salt Company, carries a $1.26 billion conditional loan commitment from the Department of Energy. It is designed to produce about 800,000 tons of MOP a year, enough to double current U.S. potash output, though still only a small share of the demand needed for row crops where we are currently lacking. This project is under permitting review, expected to be completed in early 2027. The 2025 critical mineral designation potash received puts projects like these, along with existing SOP operations in Utah, in a place of great opportunity for federal loans, and specifically the chance to win a grant of up to $150 million in a $500 million program established by the Department of Agriculture in July of 2026 for new domestic fertilizer capacity, with potash explicitly eligible. As for future importing opportunities, continuing to supply from Canada would be the most secure option, as it is close to home and easily transported by rail. Currently Brazil, who imported 96% of its potash in 2025, is developing their own production project, the Autazes Project in Amazonas, and expects to produce 2.4-million-tons of MOP per year. Evidently, the U.S. may not be faced with as much global competition for purchasing tons of potash from Canada and Russia as current competitors build out their own domestic production capabilities. Conversely, in the environment of outsourcing, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has already invested in potash mining projects in Argentina and Gabon. Overall, a far more secure supply chain can be executed through a greater amount of our own domestic production, further partnerships with countries that share similar interests, and preservation of cross-border supply lines with a codified exemption in what succeeds the USMCA to avoid any trade disputes.
Thirty Thousand Tons
As concern for home grown security has created positive interest in supply chain improvement, local U.S. farmers and potash producers can benefit from new opportunities and advancements that would allow the United States to improve economically, logistically and socially. And politically, our country needs to have a more secure chain for a nutrient that every crop must use to grow. Potash has been recognized as a critical mineral and updating and advancing its production through this illustrated supply chain will lead to a more secure future, which is nothing less than critical. As the cargo ship with 30,000 tons of potash approaches New Orleans, former strategies arrive as a lesson that we must learn from the past, as these new developments are already underway, to support a new supply of potash that can be relied on.