Supply Chain & Logistics
Processing capacity, transportation infrastructure, and supply chain resilience across the mineral value chain
Both Straits, One Crisis: How Simultaneous Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Disruptions Are Strangling Mining Input Flows
A September 15 report from GEM Mining Consulting estimates that a 90-day disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could affect between 38.9 and 77.8 million tonnes of commodity and input flows, with sulfuric acid, explosives feedstock, and battery materials among the most exposed. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to a handful of commodity vessel transits per day, as few as four on September 17, against a normal average above 125, pushing more than 4.3 million TEU of shipping capacity into port queues globally. Together, the two disruptions are reshaping mine operating costs in ways that extend well beyond the energy price shock most analysts initially focused on.
One Market, Three Fractures: How Hormuz, Negative Smelter Fees, and U.S. Tariff Hoarding Expose the Same Supply Chain Flaw
A record U.S. copper stockpile, collapsing smelter economics, and Gulf aluminium force majeure declarations arrived in the same season and are pointing at the same structural weakness: the assumption that finding and extracting raw materials is the hard part of supply security. The IEA's 2026 Critical Minerals Outlook, the copper market's extraordinary inventory bifurcation, and the ongoing fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure together make a compelling case that the real chokepoints lie in the middle of supply chains, not at the mine face.