Critical Mineral Policy
Government policies, trade regulations, and strategic initiatives shaping critical mineral supply chains
Potash: Why it’s Critical to Care About This Critical Mineral
Post-war order politics may have made sense in a post-war world. But now, 80 years later... the U.S. is faced with an approaching opportunity to secure the potash supply chain.
The Clock Runs Out: How Markets and Manufacturers Are Repricing Risk Before the November Mineral Truce Expires
With China's suspension of sweeping rare earth and critical mineral export controls set to lapse on November 10 and 27, 2026, the year-long truce that followed the Busan summit is entering its most dangerous phase. [Editor's note: On September 28, 2026, MOFCOM said the suspension of certain tariff and non-tariff measures under the China-U.S. arrangements now runs to January 10, 2027, after Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a two-month truce extension on September 23-24. That statement does not name rare earths, and MOFCOM has not amended Announcement 70, whose suspension of the October 2025 controls still legally ends November 10, 2026. As of mid-October, analysts disagree on whether the rare earth suspension is covered.] Net U.S. imports of processed minerals more than doubled to $185 billion in 2025, export restrictions on critical raw materials have reached an all-time high, and companies are now auditing supply chains, stockpiling inputs, and repricing supplier contracts against the real possibility that the pause ends and something far more disruptive begins.
Forty-Seven Days: Why the Xi-Trump Washington Summit Is the Last Clear Exit Ramp Before the Rare Earth Cliff
Xi Jinping arrives in Washington on September 24 with a calendar working against both leaders. China's suspension of its sweeping October 2025 rare earth export controls expires on November 10, just 47 days after the summit, with a second deadline for gallium, germanium, and antimony falling on November 27. With Chinese suppliers already halting some U.S. shipments and licensing problems formally on the American planning agenda, the meeting has become the pivotal diplomatic moment for a minerals trade truce that was never as stable as its architects claimed.
The Last Loophole: How Washington Used a Korean War Statute to Lock Down America's Recycled Minerals
On July 30, 2026, President Trump signed a Presidential Determination invoking Section 101 of the Defense Production Act to give Commerce Department authority to restrict exports of black mass, rare-earth permanent magnets, and tungsten scrap. It was the first use of this Korean War-era statute for critical mineral export control, and it closed a gap that had allowed recoverable strategic materials to flow freely to foreign processors, primarily in China, for years. The implementing rule took effect August 27. The industry is still catching its breath.
Named and Targeted: How China's Blacklisting of MP Materials and USA Rare Earth Signals a New Phase of Mineral Geopolitics
On June 22, 2026, China named MP Materials and USA Rare Earth directly on its export control blacklist, marking a qualitative shift from broad commodity restrictions to company-specific denial. The move, timed five weeks after a Trump-Xi summit and days after a G7 rare earth agreement, lands inside a fragile trade truce set to expire in November. With billions in federal investment on the line and a countdown to a potential second wave of controls, the question is no longer whether Beijing will weaponize mineral supply chains but how surgically it is prepared to do so.
The State Department Summoned the Mining World. What Happened Next Signals a New Era of American Industrial Power.
On August 7, 2026, President Trump convened more than 200 mining executives at the State Department and announced $3 billion in critical minerals investments explicitly linked to replenishing weapons stockpiles depleted in the Iran conflict. The event marks a decisive escalation in U.S. defense-minerals industrial policy, building on the earlier $12 billion Project Vault initiative and a sweeping executive order curbing the waivers that let defense contractors source from Chinese mineral supply chains. Whether the government's mounting financial commitment can overcome decades of Chinese industrial dominance before the next crisis arrives remains the defining question of the effort.
FORGE Ahead: How Washington's New Critical Minerals Alliance Inherited the World's Most Complicated Job, and Left Its Own Leadership Question Unanswered
On February 4, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced FORGE, the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement, as the successor to the Biden-era Minerals Security Partnership, at a ministerial attended by 54 countries and the European Commission. The new body promised sharper teeth than its predecessor: price floors enforced by adjustable tariffs, a preferential trade zone for critical minerals, and the most concentrated burst of bilateral diplomacy in American history. But as South Korea's founding chairmanship expires in June 2026, the alliance faces a governance vacuum, a credibility problem, and questions that no MOU can resolve.